Sure bet #2

I have wanted to do another sure bet to prove that it wasn't a one-off. It actually doesn't take too long to identify one. I'll need to come up with a formula for calculating the odds and required stakes, though. Here's what I came up with for the AaB v Manchester United Champions League Game.

AaB to win: £2.16 at odds of 13.0 on Betdaq is a potential £0.25 profit.
Draw: £5.61 at odds of 5.0 on Betdaq is a potential £0.22 profit.
Manchester United to win: £20.05 at odds of 1.4 on Paddy Power is a potential £0.25 profit. Worst case scenario, that's a £0.22 from a £27.82 stake, which is a 0.79% profit. But the formula is wrong! I was applying the discount on the eventual profit instead of the initial winnings, so I actually will lose those amounts with Betdaq and my only winning bet will be the Paddy Power one.

Update (Tuesday, 30 September): Manchester United won 3 : 0, so my two possible losing scenarios didn't come to pass. I lose £2.16 and £5.61 on Betdaq and win £8.02 on Paddy Power. That's an enormous profit of £0.25.

Company	Money In	Money Out	Profit
Betdaq	£7.77	£0	-£7.77
Paddy Power	£20.05	£28.07	£8.02
Total	£27.82	£28.07	£0.25
Overall Profit			£286.08

Getting the next Boylesport free bet

I got confirmation from their online help at Boylesports that I must bet on five different markets to get their next free bet. The exact words of their response (sorry about the rogue apostrophe): Placing 5 bet's on the same selection at 50 each, can be seen as attempting to abuse our offer, I would advise against that, as we have the right to withhold free bet's if irregular betting patterns are found.

With this in mind, I used my bulging Boylesports account to make the first of five £50 bets on tomorrow's Champions League game between Zenit St Petersburg and Real Madrid. Zenit St Petersburg to win at 2.88 and a Betdaq lay of £49.32 at 2.94 will mean a £1.67 loss. If I can keep each loss below £2.00 and make a £30+ profit on the free bet, I will be £20(ish) up on each of the three further free bets on offer.

Update (Tuesday, 30 September): Zenit St Petersburg 1 : 2 Real Madrid, so my first £50 qualifier loses on Boylesports, but my Betdaq lay means that I collect £48.33 (£49.32 - £0.99) meaning that I'm £1.67 down as predicted.

Update (Wednesday, 1 October): I had enough funds in my Betdaq account for two more £50 qualifying bets. I identified two minimal loss qualifying bets as West Brom to win at home to Fulham at 2.25 together with a lay of £48.91 (£64.57 liability) and Swansea to beat Wolverhampton at 2.9 together with a lay of £48.99 (£96.99 liability). Two more to find, but I am hoping both of these lose at the bookmaker to avoid me having to add funds to the exchange.

Update (Saturday, 4 October): Both bets 'won', so my Boylesport account improved, and my Betdaq account reduced to almost zero. West Brom beat Fulham by a solitary goal, and Swansea upset the league leaders Wolverhampton 3 : 1. I won £62.50 and £95 on the bets and lost £64.56 and £97 on the lays. With two more qualifying bets to go before my next free bet, I am down a further £4.06.

Update (Sunday, 5 October): My next qualifying bet required a deposit of £55 into my Betdaq account to cover the lay. £50 on Osasuna to beat Racing Santander at 2.1 with a lay of £48.61 at 2.18. Osasuna lost 0 : 1, so my Betdaq account improved by £47.64 (£48.61 - £0.97), a £2.36 loss. One more qualifying bet to go.

Update (Thursday, 9 October): My final qualifying bet of £50 was on Georgia to beat Cyprus at odds of 2.10, a Betdaq lay of £49.53 at 2.14 counters the bet with a loss of £1.46.
Update (Saturday, 11 October): The game ended in a 1 : 1 draw, so my £50 bet lost and I won £48.54 (£49.53 less £0.99 commission) on Betdaq.

Update (Saturday, 11 October): Logged into my Boylesports account and discovered that my free bet was already available. I wasn't expecting to have the bet until my last qualifying bet was resolved. I had about £53 in my Betdaq account, so I bet on the Czech Republic to beat Poland at 2.63 with the £50 free bet. The lay was £30.41 (a £51.70 liability) at 2.7.
Poland beat the Czech Republic 2 : 1, so my free bet lost and I won £29.80 (£30.41 less £0.61) with Betdaq.

Bet	Boylesports	Betdaq	Difference
1	-£50	£48.33	-£1.67
2	£62.50	-£64.56	-£2.06
3	£95	-£97	-£2
4	-£50	£47.64	-£2.36
5	-£50	£48.54	-£1.46
Free	£0	£29.80	£29.80
Total			£20.25
Overall Profit			£285.83

Paddy Power Email

I was already a member of Paddy Power when I started the experiment, so couldn't include the free bet received from them. In fact, I probably squandered it on a long shot which I thought was a dead cert. I do receive emails from them, though, and one I received on Friday, 26 September caught my eye. The title was 'A Free Bet From Paddy Power!'. The contents of the email detailed a free bet of £10 for a £10 wager. Seemed to fit the requirements of the experiment, so I quickly logged into their site and wagered on the popular Everton v Liverpool game. £10 Liverpool to win at 2.2 was matched exactly by a Betfair lay of £10.53 at 2.14 - this is a £0.00 qualifying bet.

I used my £10 free bet on the almost as popular Middlesbrough v West Brom match. A 5.5 bet was countered on Betfair with a 5.5 lay of £8.26.

Update (Monday, 29 September): Liverpool won, but that match made no difference to my overall profit. West Brom also won, so my Paddy Power account increased by £45 while my Betfair account reduced by £37.17 - a £7.83 profit. The overall total increases to £265.58.

Going through my emails, I got a similar Paddy Power email one month previously, which I missed. I won't make that mistake again.

Boylesports

I was reluctant to join Boylesports because their registration form was not secure. I was concerned that my credit card details would be transmitted unencrypted over the web. You can actually register without supplying your card details and then register the card once logged in. Strangely this registration IS secure.

I deposited the required amount of £50 to be able to get the full free bet, and again chose the Everton v Liverpool derby as my qualifier. The odds have stretched a little for Liverpool, but I still managed a fairly good deal. A bet of £50 at 2.15 and a lay of £49.09 at 2.21 means I'll only be down £1.89. That's brought the Betdaq funds down a little.

My free bet became available before the weekend fixtures and I chose West Brom to beat Middlesbrough at 5.5, with a Betdaq lay at 5.5 as well. The higher the odds when betting a free bet, the bigger the profit, but you need lots more in your exchange account to cover it.

Update (Monday, 29 September): Liverpool beat Everton and West Brom beat Middlesbrough, meaning that both my Boylesports bets won. The Liverpool qualifying bet lost me £1.64, which was countered by the West Brom free bet which won me £35.75. The overall total advances to £257.75.

Pagebet

I noticed Pagebet on Setanta - they were displaying a quote from someone who worked for pagebet.com regarding the next Newcastle United manager. I thought I'd take a look and they were offering a free £25 bet for an initial £25 stake.

Having deposited my £25, I checked out the weekend's Premiership fixtures. Pagebet don't display their odds in decimals, so every bet has to be worked out. Luckily for me, the first fixture fitted the bill - Everton v Liverpool. I plumped for Liverpool at 11/10, which is 2.1 at £25 and a corresponding Betdaq lay at 2.16. This works out as a £0.96 loss for a qualifying bet, which is more than acceptable. I should get my free bet within 24 hours, so maybe I can bet again on the same fixture.

Update (Thursday, 25 September): Pagebet DO display their odds as decimals, it's a configurable preference, which makes life a lot easier. I got my £25 free bet today, so quickly used it to bet on Sunderland to do the business over Aston Villa at Villa Park at odds of 6.0. A corresponding Betdaq lay of £17.91 at odds of 7.0 should mean a £17.55 profit.

Update (Monday, 29 September): Sunderland failed to do the business, so I lost my free bet. Liverpool on the other hand did beat Everton fairly easily, so my Pagebet account has not been obliterated, which means that a withdrawal of funds will be required. For the record, my Liverpool qualifying bet lost me £0.95 and my Sunderland free bet won me £17.55, an overall profit of £16.60 meaning that the grand total now stands at £223.64.

Interwetten

The experiment must continue, but now I'm having to join the sites I have previously identified and passed over, due to them having betting through clauses. I chose Interwetten as they appear quite often in Sure Bets listings. I deposited my £60 and after a 5 minute delay for 'manual processing' it showed in my account along with a £30 bonus. There's also a 3% charge for card deposits, so that's £1.80 down already.

Now, the stake AND bonus needs to be wagered 5 times before it can be withdrawn. Ideally, I want to lose this as quickly as possible, like PartyBets, but football being football (West Ham were evens to win but still lost), and not having much funds in the Betdaq account, I selected relatively low odds by choosing Osasuna to beat Deportivo La Coruna tomorrow (Wednesday). The odds were 2.3 on the bookmaker site and 2.4 on the exchange, so not too bad, and a calculated loss of £4.76. If I can keep the loss below £5 for each of the bet throughs, I should still make a profit.

Update (Wednesday, 24 September): Couldn't have gone better - my Interwetten account is nullified after the first bet with Osasuna failing to beat 10 man Deportivo (0 : 0). I lose my £60 + £1.80, but win £85.23 (£86.97 - £1.74 commission) with Betdaq, a profit of £23.43. The overall profit now stands at £207.04.

PartyBets

I finally found the first deposit bonus terms and conditions for PartyBets. They match your first £25 immediately. So, I deposited £25 and got £50 to bet with straight away. The bonus must be bet a number of times at odds of at least 2.0, so I immediately bet the full £50 on the Carling Cup game between Watford and West Ham, with West Ham to win at odds of 2.0. A corresponding lay (roughly) with Betdaq means that, if West Ham win, I get £75 profit with the bookmaker, but lose £53.10 on the exchange. Alternatively, I get £47.80 with the exchange, but lose £25 with the bookmaker. No point talking overall profit until I am in a position to withdraw or have lost the bonus through betting.

Update (Tuesday, 23 September): Watford beat West Ham by 1 : 0 meaning that my PartyBets account was reduced to nothing in no time at all. I won £46.84 (£47.80 - £0.96 commission) with Betdaq and lost my £25 deposit with PartyBets, which is a £21.84 profit. The overall profit goes up to £183.61.

Sure Bets

I have been looking into this for a while - plus I had £10 in my Canbet account.

On site Odds1X2, there is a Sure Bets section. Most of the bets have a percentage gain of about 2%, but include Betfair as one of the bookies. If you're paying 5% commission, then this is not going to make it profitable.

I found a bet which pitted Canbet against Bet365, which supposedly gave a 0.42% profit. The website calculator is a bit rubbish, but it's fairly easy to knock one up yourself with Excel. To test it out, I added £11 to my Bet365 account, and bet £9.80 on Sporting Gijon +1 over Barcelona with the Asian handicap with Canbet at odds of 2.13 (still with me?) and £11 on Barcelona -1 over Sporting Gijon with Bet365 at odds of 1.9. Now, if I've worked this out correctly, I stand to make £0.07 with Canbet or £0.10 with Bet365. "Next year, we'll be millionaires!"

Update: A bit one sided, this - Sporting Gijon 1 : 6 Barcelona. My Bet365 bet is the winner, meaning that I am £0.10 up on the bet pair (I won £9.90 and lost £9.80 on the Canbet wager). The overall profit goes up to £161.77.

Bet24

I deposited £60 with Bet24. This cost an additional £1.20 - a 2% charge for using a credit card, despite me using a debit card. This will have to be taken off the profit on settling the account. To get my £30 bonus, I was required to claim it by email and send a government issued ID. They confirmed that this was a driver's license or passport, so I sent the encrypted ZIP file used with IASBet (less passport and debit card images). They credited my account within 30 minutes of me sending the details.

I decided to bet the full £90 on West Ham beating Newcastle at odds of 2.05 (a potential £124.50 profit). I laid £88.28 using Betdaq at odds of 2.11 (a £97.99 liability).

Update (Sunday, 21 September): West Ham beat Newcastle 3 : 1, giving Gianfranco Zola his first win as manager of the Hammers. I contacted Bet24 by email to clarify the terms and conditions regarding betting through the bonus before I can withdraw. Interestingly, because I bet the deposit and bonus as my first bet, this counts as betting my bonus through 3 of the 4 times, so I only need to bet £30 through once more before I can withdraw. I emailed them again to make sure.

For my final bet through, I put my £30 stake on Chelsea to beat Manchester United at 2.13 - the Betdaq lay was £28.53 at 2.26 (a £35.94 liability) and a loss of £2.04. There were cheaper bets, but I didn't have enough money in the Betdaq account to cover and was reluctant to put any more money in.

Update: Chelsea 1 : 1 Manchester United, so my Bet24 bonus is 'lost'. I win £27.96 (£28.53 less £0.57 commission) with Betdaq. This means that I have put in £60 + £1.20 + £97.99 into the Bet24 wagers and got £154.50 + £27.96 out. This is a net gain of £23.27. The overall total goes up to £161.67.

Bet Freddest

My second BetFred £50 free bet was awarded very promptly, and - now having funds to play with in my Betdaq account - I set to work identifying a Champions League bet. I went for a draw between Basle and Shakhtar Donetsk at odds of 3.25 with a corresponding lay of £33.28 at odds of 3.4 (a £79.87 liability). Now, Betfair were offering better lay odds of 3.35, but, with their commission at 5%, I was actually better off laying with Betdaq at the slightly higher odds but a lower 2% commission.

Update (Tuesday, 16 September): Basle 1 : 2 Shakhtar Donetsk, so I lost my free bet, but won £32.61 (£33.28 less £0.67 commission) on the Betdaq exchange, meaning that the overall profit moves to £117.37

IASBet - Betting Through Again

One more bet required before I can withdraw my free bet winnings from IASBet. I identified a PSG win against Nantes at odds of 1.62 and bet the required £112.50. I laid £114.62 (£73.36 liability) with Betfair at 1.64. A 1 : 0 win later and I 'won' my bet and have an overall loss of £3.61 on the bet BUT NOW I CAN WITHDRAW. I will wait for my first withdrawal to be processed before I process this one, though, and I won't be applying any of the profits or losses from the IASBet experience until I know exactly how much each transaction has cost.

Update (Tuesday, 16 September): My first withdrawal of £111 appeared in my bank account today IN FULL! I will now attempt to withdraw the rest of the IASBet winnings.

Requested my winnings using their Live Chat facility, which is excellent. If I get the full £211.50 that's in my account, and I've no reason to think otherwise, the whole IASBet experience had the following result:

£53.35 to deposit £50 (down £3.35).
£61 winnings on qualifying bet countered by a £63.72 exchange loss (down £2.72, overall down £6.07 - this £2.72 has already been taken into account as regards the overall total profit in an earlier post).
£112.50 winnings on free bet countered by a £82.39 exchange loss (up £30.11, overall up £24.04).
£29.25 winnings on first bet through of free bet winnings countered by a £31.37 exchange loss (down £2.12, overall up £21.92).
£69.75 winnings on second bet through of free bet winnings countered by a £73.36 exchange loss (down £3.61, overall up £18.31).

My overall profit is now £138.40.

Update (Sunday, 21 September): My bank account is showing the latest withdraw from IASBet and no commission charges.

Betdaq

The Betfair climate appears to be changing. They are about to start charging a fee for profitable accounts. Betdaq, recognising customer dissatisfaction have reduced their commission to 2% (if you ask for it) until the end of the year. They are also offering a £25 bet. In fact, they gave me the free bet retrospectively because I hadn't deposited and placed my first bet yet. The free bet calculator doesn't cater for exchange to exchange i.e. commission charged at both ends, so my betting was based on Betdaq being the bookmaker. For my £25 qualification bet, I chose Napoli to beat Fiorentina at 2.77, with a corresponding lay of £25.18 with Betfair at 2.8 (a £45.32 liability).

Update (Sunday, 14 September 2008): Napoli beat Fiorentina 2 : 1, so I won (£44.25 less £0.89 commission) and lost £45.33 with Betfair, meaning an overall loss of £1.97. This puts the overall total at £84.76 with a free bet to come.

IASBet - Betting Through

Got confirmation from IASBet online help that I can bet through the free bet winnings at any odds. Identified a close match between betting odds and lay odds for an Inter Milan win against Catania. A £112.50 bet at odds of 1.26 with a corresponding lay of £116.19 at 1.27 is a £31.37 liability and a guaranteed loss of just £2.12. I know this goes against the recommendation from Bet72, but I just don't have that much in my Betfair account at the moment.

Update (Sunday, 14 September 2008): Inter Milan duly beat Catania 2 : 1 despite playing the whole of the second half with 10 men, so my IASBet account improved by £29.25 and my Betfair account depreciated by £31.37, meaning a loss (as predicted) of £2.12. I won't update the overall total until all monies have been reclaimed from IASBet as we still have the unknown element of the exchange rate to contend with.

Bet Fredder

I now need to bet 5 lots of £10 at odds of at least 2.0 (Ts and Cs says cumulative, but I would rather avoid the possibility of miscalculation and make each bet viable) to get my next free bet of £50. I have £105 in the BetFred kitty from the qualifying bet win.

First £10 qualifying bet: Cardiff City to beat Bristol City at 2.1 with a corresponding lay stake of £9.77 at 2.2, which is a £11.72 liability and a guaranteed loss of £0.72.
Update (Sunday, 14 September 2008): Stalemate 0 : 0, so the Betfair account improved by £9.28 (£9.77 less £0.49) which is an overall loss of £0.72.

Second £10 qualifying bet: Identified Bordeaux to beat Marseille at 2.38, so laid at 2.52 with a stake of £14.65 THEN BET ON AUXERRE BY MISTAKE! Their odds were the same - so now I still have to bet on Bordeaux and then lay on Auxerre. So, to clarify:

Second £10 qualifying bet: Bordeaux to beat Marseille at 2.38 with a corresponding lay stake of £9.64 at 2.52, which is a £14.65 liability and a guaranteed loss of £0.85.
Update (Sunday, 14 September 2008): A 1 : 1 draw, so the Betfair account improved by £9.16 (£9.64 less £0.48) which is an overall loss of £0.84.

Third £10 qualifying bet: Auxerre to beat Nancy at 2.38 with a corresponding lay stake of £9.41 at 2.58, which is a £14.87 liability and a guaranteed loss of £1.07 - about £0.20 too much. More care needed.
Update (Sunday, 14 September 2008): Another 1 : 1 draw, so the Betfair account improved by £8:94 (£9.41 less £0.47) which is an overall loss of £1.06.

Fourth £10 qualifying bet: Stuttgart to beat Hoffenheim at 2.38 with a corresponding lay stake of £9.79 at 2.48, which is a £14.49 liability and a guaranteed loss of £0.70.
Update (Sunday, 14 September 2008): Another stalemate 0 : 0, so the Betfair account improved by £9.30 (£9.79 less £0.49) which is an overall loss of £0.70.

Fifth £10 qualifying bet: Roma to beat Palermo at 2.2 with two corresponding lay stakes of £5.47 at 2.32, which is an £7.22 liability and £4.18 at 2.34, which is a £5.60 liability and an overall guaranteed loss of £0.82 if Roma win and £0.84 if they don't. Not enough money in the lay to do a single bet.
Update (Sunday, 14 September 2008): Palermo beat Roma 3 : 1, so the Betfair account improved by £9.17 (£9.65 less £0.48) which is an overall loss of £0.83. The cumulative loss is £4.15, which reduces the overall profit to £86.73

BetFred

I decided to trust BetFred as their credit/debit card entry form is secure, although they would improve customer confidence if they didn't hide that fact by putting it in an IFRAME.

I deposited my £50 and bet on there being more than 2.5 goals in the Slovakia v Northern Ireland game at odds of 2.1. A Betfair lay of £48.84 at 2.2 meant that a 2 : 1 Slovakia win resulted in a £55 win with BetFred and a £58.61 loss with Betfair which is a loss of £3.61 meaning the profit is down to £59.17.

I got the free bet 24 hours later and bet on the match between Iceland and Scotland being a draw (match is on the 10th September). This had odds of 3.25, so the £50 free bet will return £112.50 if it wins. I had to lay twice with Betfair as the odds I wanted didn't have enough money behind them. I laid £20.40 at odds of 3.4 and £12.98 at odds of 3.45. This means that I will make a £31.74 profit if the match ends in a draw and a £31.71 profit if it doesn't. I will update the overall profit after the event.
Update: Scotland won 1 : 2, so my profit from this free bet is £31.71. My overall profit now stands at £90.88.

IASBet - Continued

Well. I've provided them with everything short of a DNA sample and they are still saying they don't have enough information to process my withdrawal. To make matters worse, Serena Williams only went and won the US Open, so my free bet was a winner. I will have to study closely the Ts and Cs to make sure that I bet correctly and don't forfeit the winnings - if my experience so far with IASBet is anything to go by.

The folks at bet72 advise that the best way to treat rollover type free bets (i.e. the type of bets that require you to bet the winnings a number of times before you can withdraw) is to try and lose them as quickly as possible, thus boosting the Betfair account rather than the betting site account. I won £112.50 with my free bet, and have double checked with IASBet that I will have to make bets totalling £225 before I can withdraw.

It appears that the ZIP file I sent them with my international bank details may have become corrupted, so I will try and send it a second time.

Update (Wednesday, 10 September 2008): Got confirmation today that the ZIP file was not corrupted, and they have my bank details. It's just a case of telling them how much I want to withdraw now ... maybe I'll check the exchange rate first.

Update (Thursday, 11 September 2008): Sent email telling them I would like to withdraw my first bet winnings without touching my free bet winnings. They have processed a withdrawal of £111 for me with assurances that my free bet winnings have not been affected.

IASBet - The Full Story

My deposit of £50 needn't have been. They should have given me my free bet for a £25 deposit. That was the first piece of misleading information from IASBet.

My £50 deposit actually cost me £51.85 - I'm presuming that the difference is in the currency conversion. I was also charged £1.50 by my bank. This is a loss of £3.35 before I even began to bet. Add to this the £2.72 loss from the qualifying bet, and I'm £6.07 down.
From the website (the exchange rate must be lousy):
All foreign currency credit/debit card deposits are billed at the CBA universal foreign exchange rate of the day.

My IASBet account is showing £111 and their online chat help informed me that I could withdraw without losing my free bet.

There are rules that Australian betting sites have to adhere to regarding fraud prevention, apparently. This means that the VISA debit card I used to deposit has to be verified, and my identity has to be verified before they will honour any withdrawal requests. This involves sending them an image of both sides of the debit card and enough photographic, address and signatory evidence to satisfy their scoring system. This effectively meant me sending images of my driver's license and my passport. I used encrypted WinZip to send the images by email.

The withdrawal request still didn't go through. Apparently, they don't process withdrawals back onto the debit card used for deposit if it is not Australian. This is contrary to the website which states:

We are unable to process withdrawals to MasterCard holders outside Australia. In the event that you have deposited via MasterCard and wish to make a withdrawal, you will be required to register your card prior to withdrawing to an alternative mechanism (i.e. bank transfer, NETeller, or Moneybookers). To register your card, please submit a legible copy of the front and back of your MasterCard and suitable government-issued identification.

In all other instances, all winnings must be withdrawn to the same card from which the initial deposit was made. Withdrawals to debit/credit cards typically take 5 business days.

I would interpret that as meaning that I CAN use by VISA debit card as the withdrawal mechanism, but I'm being told that I will have to send my bank details for an international bank transfer. I will probably lose money on the exchange rate again.

As far as the free bet is concerned, similar to CanBet, their free bet options are extremely limited. The one with the soonest result is the winner of the US Open Women's tennis. I bet my £50 free bet on Serena Williams to win at 3.25 with a corresponding lay of £31.69 at 3.6 (liability £82.39). This will give a £30.11 profit, but I can't withdraw the winnings without betting it through twice. We'll cross that bridge ...

Update: Just spoke to a nice man from Australia who phoned me while I was using the online chat. He has clarified the situation. I will need to supply my international account details, including IBAN and Swift codes if I am ever to see my money.

Sky+++

The final £10 free bet from Sky Bet became available and, with a sparsity of football bets available, I decided to bet on the tennis. In particular, the Del Potro v Murray quarter final match. I bet on Del Potro winning 3 sets to 1 at odds of 7.0 with a lay of £8.39 at 7.2 (£52.02 liability). This converts into a guaranteed profit of £7.97.
Update:Murray won by 3 sets to 1 and I won £7.97 (£8.39 less £0.42 commission) with Betfair meaning the overall profit is now £62.78