Monday, 29 September 2008

Sure bet #2

I have wanted to do another sure bet to prove that it wasn't a one-off. It actually doesn't take too long to identify one. I'll need to come up with a formula for calculating the odds and required stakes, though. Here's what I came up with for the AaB v Manchester United Champions League Game.

AaB to win: £2.16 at odds of 13.0 on Betdaq is a potential £0.25 profit.
Draw: £5.61 at odds of 5.0 on Betdaq is a potential £0.22 profit.
Manchester United to win: £20.05 at odds of 1.4 on Paddy Power is a potential £0.25 profit. Worst case scenario, that's a £0.22 from a £27.82 stake, which is a 0.79% profit. But the formula is wrong! I was applying the discount on the eventual profit instead of the initial winnings, so I actually will lose those amounts with Betdaq and my only winning bet will be the Paddy Power one.

Update (Tuesday, 30 September): Manchester United won 3 : 0, so my two possible losing scenarios didn't come to pass. I lose £2.16 and £5.61 on Betdaq and win £8.02 on Paddy Power. That's an enormous profit of £0.25.

CompanyMoney InMoney OutProfit
Betdaq£7.77£0-£7.77
Paddy Power£20.05£28.07£8.02
Total£27.82£28.07£0.25
Overall Profit£286.08

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